At this point, barring an exasperating court battle that leads to a concession, or an assassination attempt, the smart money has to be on Scott Murphy in the still-ongoing race for the 20th Congressional District.

Courtesy of the National Journal:

Time to Panic at Tedisco?

NY-20 Special Election

-             votes  %age

Murphy       79,404  50.05%

Tedisco      79,237  49.95

Advantage: Murphy +167

Partial Absentee Ballot Tallies

-                             Absentee Ballot Makeup

-             Murphy  Tedisco        Dem  GOP

Columbia Co.  383     222             53%  26%

Delaware*     149     134             37%  52%

Dutchess      275     217             42%  34%

Essex*         88      62             35%  47%

Greene*       216     231             32%  47%

Otsego*        51      64             34%  50%   

Rensselaer*   221     211             31%  43%

Saratoga      509     672             29%  53%

Warren        254     181             32%  56%

Washington    267     186             33%  54%

Total         916     826             36%  46%

Margin:      +323

"At last: final numbers from" Saratoga Co., and Assemb. Jim Tedisco (R) "picks up 163" votes after "all paper ballots -- including military -- have been counted" (Seiler, "Capitol Confidential" blog, AlbanyTimes Union, 4/15). But "the results are not good for" Tedisco, since that 163-vote margin "was not enough to overcome businessman Scott Murphy's (D) lead. Tedisco's" camp "was hoping to take over the lead" once Saratoga was final. "There are still about 700 challenged ballots in the county that may end up being included in the count," but the "majority of ballot objections across" the CD "have been lodged" by the GOP, "making it difficult for Tedisco to overturn even a narrow deficit as most of the votes get counted. ... And there are still additional absentee ballots left to be cast in Columbia, Dutchess and Warren" Cos., all of which Murphy carried on Election Day (Kraushaar, Politico, 4/15).

PolitickerNY.com's Vielkind; "The lead is of course subject to change, but is psychologically important. As the canvass moves to challenged ballots, it looks as though Murphy is going in with a slight lead. More ballots were set aside because of objections from the Tedisco" camp than the Murphy camp. "Bad news for Tedisco" (4/15).

After Further Review, The Ruling On The Field...

On 4/15, attys for both Tedisco and Murphy "argued three issues before" Judge James Brands: "whether objections to absentee ballots can be lodged based on the applications for absentee ballots, whether ballots objected to by one candidate's representative can be counted if both elections commissioners overrule the objection...and whether voters with multiple residencies can register to vote in a place other than their 'domicile'" (Vielkind, PolitickerNY.com, 4/15).

Brands "ruled poll watchers may no longer use the application filed by absentee voters for a ballot as grounds for objecting to that voter's ballot." Dems "estimate up to" 1K "ballots across" NY-20 "were challenged because the voter didn't give a reason for his or her inability to vote in person that seemed adequate to a poll watcher." He also ruled that "in cases where a ballot has been challenged by a poll watcher but" elections commis. "unanimously overrule the objection, the ballot should be counted and then photocopied for possible later review by a judge. The ruling affects about 100 ballots, Murphy lawyerHenry Berger said."

Attys continued to argue "the residency issue," and "briefs on the issue are due" 4/20, "when all parties are next set to appear in court" (Hornbeck, Albany Times Union, 4/16).

This means "most of the" more than 1.2K contested absentee ballots "will be counted" (Vielkind, PolitickerNy.com, 4/15).

...After Tedisco Threw Red Flag After Red Flag After Red Flag After...(You Get The Point)

As Tedisco's attys objected "to nearly every absentee ballot mailed to" Columbia Co. from NYC or FL, "lawyers for" Murphy were "accusing the" GOP of "weeding out Jewish names and stalling where there is clear legal precedent to allow the votes." In court, Dems argued, "citing precedent," that votes from citizens with second homes outside NY-20 "are valid so long as voters with multiple residencies don't case ballots in multiple places."

"The thinking behind the" GOP attitude "toward what" one Dem called "the 'weekend population' is that they are mostly affluent professionals and that they lead" to the Dems. Atty Thomas Garry "went one step further, holding up his yellow pad and showing the names of those challenged." Garry: "Cohen, Pollack, Rosegarten, Winakor -- there's a pattern: they're Democrats and they're Jewish." Tedisco attyJames Walsh: "My children are Jewish, and I'm offended at that. We have research to indicate that many of these people who reside on the Upper West Side and in Florida and other areas live there primarilyy, and they are continuously requesting absentee ballots in Columbia County when they are not eligible to vote there" (Vielkind, PolitickerNY.com, 4/13).

The Tedisco camp also challenged "ballots of students who come from outside" NY-20, "many of whom attend Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs." Saratoga Co. Dem Chair Larry Bulman said "several of the student ballots were being challenged on grounds that the students improperly claimed residency within the district. ... He did not have a specific number of student ballots that were challenged." Bulman: "It's ridiculous -- these same students voted with no problem in November."

Walsh: "What we're doing is trying to prevent fraud." Saratoga Co. GOP Chair Jasper Nolan "said the issue...has come up in the past." The final result at the on-campus polling center, "according to the student newspaper," was 167 votes for Murphy, 11 votes for Tedisco (Vielkind, PolitickerNY.com, 4/15).

"The average time" to dispense with an individual ballot 4/13 "was two-and-a-half-minutes," and there were 38 challenges in Columbia Co. 4/13 by GOPers to only one by Dems, according to Murphy spokesperson Ryan Rudominer. "Walsh didn't dispute that number." Walsh: "This is about weeding out people who have committed voter fraud" (PolitickerNY.com, 4/13).

Albany Times Union's Hornbeck, on the atmosphere in Columbia Co.: "It reminded me a little of Hollywood week on American Idol, when" judges Paula Abdul, Randy Jackson, Kara DioGuardi andSimon Cowell "decided who made it and who didn't." On 4/13, Columbia Co. officials "looked at 78 ballots, but opened less than half of them. At this rate," according to Board of Elections Commis.Virginia Martin (D), "it will take six more days to get through all the absentee ballots in the county" (4/13).

According to Murphy atty Henry Berger, "more than 600 absentee ballots have been put aside unopened because one or the other of the candidates objected to the ballot" (Hornbeck, Albany Times Union, 4/14). Across NY-20, Dems estimated "that the majority of the challenges" -- about 60% -- came from Tedisco's camp. GOPers were "especially aggressive in" Columbia Co., "which Murphy won on Election Night by more than 1,880 votes (Kraushaar, Politico, 4/13).

Inconclusive Evidence On This One

Tedisco had "been challenging absentee ballots right and left," Murphy complained. And 4/14, Tedisco attys "challenged the ballot of one person they could be fairly certain had voted for" Murphy: Sen.Kirsten Gillibrand (D). "Every vote still up for grabs takes on heightened significance, but the move plays into" Murphy's "accusations that" Tedisco "is systematically trying to disenfranchise" Dem voters. Tedisco atty John Ciampoli "said he was told that" Gillibrand "campaigned for" Murphy in NY-20 on Election Day. Ciampoli, citing state law: "If she was present in her voting district, in her county, at the time the polls were open, she was required to vote on the machine."

Gillibrand spokesperson Matt Canter "said" Gillibrand "did not enter the district that day until the polls had already closed: She awoke in Albany, flew" to DC, "flew back to Albany, and drove to Saratoga Springs for" Murphy's election-night party, "arriving after 9 p.m." Canter "called...Tedisco's challenge 'desperate and disturbing'" (Halbfinger, New York Times, 4/15). But even if Gillibrand was in NY-20 on Election Day, "election law requires only that a person applying for the absentee ballot must have a 'good-faith belief' that they won't be in the district on the day of the election," according to author and poll war veteran Jerry Goldfeder (Hornbeck, Albany Times Union, 4/15).

Tedisco spokesperson Tyler Brown: "Representatives from the campaign are raising concerns on those ballots that may have been improperly cast, regardless of who they may belong to" (Jacobs, The Hill, 4/15).

But Gillibrand didn't buy it. In an op-ed to The Huffington Post and Daily Kos, Gillibrand: "Today the Republicans stooped to a new low by challenging my ballot. The...challenge is frivolous and without merit. ... Their latest move to challenge my ballot is part of a much larger attempt to disenfranchise legal Democratic voters and delay Scott Murphy's inevitable victory in the 20th. ... Every day that the national Republicans waste with their dishonest stalling tactics is another day Upstate New Yorkers are deprived their member of Congress. ... Let my vote and every vote be counted" (4/15).

Meanwhile, National Review Online's Freddoso writes, "Aside from any question of the merits of that challenge, it does not look good to challenge the franchise of a sitting senator. But it is interesting that Gillibrand's staff told the New York Times that she was not there when the polls were open because there were Senate votes scheduled for that day in Washington. Gillibrand did not participate in any of the three roll call votes that took place in the Senate on that day)" (4/16).

Good Thing He Doesn't Work At A Newspaper, 'Cause He Obviously Doesn't Understand Deadlines

Tedisco sent a "written request" to the NY Board of Elections, Gov. David Paterson (D) and the DoJ 4/13, requesting "an additional 15 days for absentee military ballots to arrive." Yesterday was "the date that had previously been" set as the "deadline for military ballots." The letter "says 'the Federal Voter Assistance Program of the Department of Defense recommends allowing 45 days from the time of sending overseas ballots to allow those ballots to be received and returned to election officials.'" Because of the "timing of the special election," officials allowed "for about 30 days" (Troy Record, 4/14).

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